International aspect

Due to the USDA supply and demand report significantly reduced the United States cotton production more stimulus, last week the United States cotton main contract board once rebounded to 70.8 cents/pound, the United States cotton main last week rebounded slightly, superimposed the United States cotton weekly export data improved, the United States cotton prices temporarily stopped falling slightly.

The United States cotton weekly export data improved in the new week, making the price a certain support, but the sustainability of the improvement in exports remains to be observed, and the overall demand is still weak. The expectation of global supply and demand easing in the New Year has not changed.

Domestic aspect

1, the supply side, the domestic commercial inventory continued to warehouse but still higher than the same period last year, since this year China's cotton imports increased significantly, the current domestic cotton resources are relatively abundant. The weather in the New Year has limited influence on the growth of new cotton, and the domestic cotton harvest is expected to be strong.

2, the demand side, the recent downstream demand slightly improved, the start-up of the textile factory has picked up, but the overall improvement is limited, the inventory level of finished products is still high. Recent downstream orders have increased slightly, cotton companies are willing to support prices, and the spot price of cotton is stable. Textile enterprises buy goods with the purchase, the transaction is relatively small. Due to the increase in downstream autumn and winter orders, superimposed macro trend and low cotton prices, cotton prices are expected to rise slightly.

In summary, in the recent macro and industrial resonance, both internal and external cotton prices have hit a new low stage. Short-term cotton supply strong need weak pattern unchanged, the large probability of continuation of the oscillating bottom search process, concerned about the domestic "gold nine silver ten" peak season orders landing situation.

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