Recently, the three major organizational institutions of OPEC, IEC (IEA) and US Energy Information (EIA), and the US Energy Information Technology (EIA) were also raised in 2021 global oil demand expectations. Although the oil output country will increase oil daily production in May, June and July, 350,000 barrels and 441,000 barrels, but with the increase of economic recovery and consumption, production still can't keep up with demand. Crude oil inventory is always maintained at a low position.

From my country's textile fabric market, the traditional "Golden Three" is chaotic into a pot of porridge. It is hard to expect "silver four". The price of textile raw materials has declined, and the fabric company can eat "Anshan", but the oil price, let The fabric company just "Shu octave" also took the heart - would the raw material price increase?

Oil price rose ten eight nine

The data released by IEA shows that in the middle of April, the US-Japanese petrol consumption rose to 8.9 million barrels, which has the highest level since August last year. With the acceleration of new crown vaccination, especially the temperature of the northern hemisphere rises, the summer is approaching, traveling in Europe and the United States, tourism will be more frequent, gasoline and fuel consumption will also increase. Therefore, the International Energy Department will raise 230,000 barrels per day in 2021 global oil demand. After the global oil demand fell by 8.7 million barrels / in the future, it is expected that global oil demand will increase by 5.7 million barrels per day, reaching 96.7 million barrels. /day.

There is no doubt that the continuous resumption of demand accelerates crude oil consumption. The data released by the US Energy Information Department showed that in the middle of April, US commercial crude oil stocks were 490 million barrels, down 5.9 million barrels in the previous month, exceeding the market, and the US-Japanese crude oil production was 11 million barrels, an increase of 100,000 barrels in the previous year. With the gradual recovery of the US market, crude oil demand has risen, and the increase in supply of daily supply has not followed the increase in consumption demand, and inventory reduction is also a matter of course.

Although the price of Brent crude oil and the US crude oil is from fluctuations, the market is worried that Indian new crown cases will depress the country's fuel demand, but due to the signs of resuscitation of demand in Europe and the United States, the international big lines are optimistic about oil prices. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about oil prices. It is expected that Brent crude oil prices will reach $ 75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year.

The analysis article of the Comprehensive Financial Services Guotai Junan pointed out that although crude oil prices may continue to continue macro emotional and liquidity expectations in short-term, the fundamental support is strong, and the fundamental support is stronger, and the peak of summer demand in the northern hemisphere Prior to the period, crude oil prices were still a big probability event.

As we all know, the price trend of my country's textile fiber raw materials is consistent with the price of crude oil. The price of textile raw materials in the beginning of this year followed the international oil prices and rose sharply after the Spring Festival, the price exceeded the epidemic. Similarly, the price of fabric is also a watershed in the Spring Festival holiday, and there is a very obvious price difference. The price increase in the year is very common, which also leads to the premium of many fabric companies because of the price of chemical fiber fabrics. High and canceled, postponed.

Raw material price is not moving

However, the recent crude oil prices continue to be optimistic, and there is no increase in the price of related varieties of the downstream polyester industry chain.

China · Keqiao Textile Index shown in April 26 shows that the price index of polyester raw materials is small, the mainstream price of PTA spot in East China is 4490 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene glycol MEG is 4800. Yuan / ton ~ 4877.5 yuan / ton, falling around 245 yuan / ton to 365 yuan / ton, the quotation of the polyester slice market is down, the semi-gloss sliced cash or March of Jiangsu, Zhejiang is 5875 yuan / ton ~ 5975 yuan / ton The ring is 25 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton. Xiao Shao area, polyester filament, fell, POY quotation is 7550 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton ~ 65 yuan / ton, FDY quotation is 8550 yuan / ton, the same is flat, the DTY offer is 8950 yuan / ton, Falling about 50 yuan / ton.

The index report also pointed out that the current terminal demand is the dominant factor affecting the market price. In the near future, there is a poor order, and the overseas orders are not smooth and otherwise.

"In the case where the terminal clothing orders are not improved, the trend of oil prices is very limited in my country's textile industry chain. Perhaps short-term oil prices will drive the short-term increase in raw material prices, but will fall back due to poor demand." Wuhan Yu Da Liu Juan, the relevant person in charge of China Textile Apparel Group Co., Ltd. However, she also emphasized that there is too much uncertainty in the current turbulent market, often turning a wind blowing will change the original market wind direction, and the market still needs to pay close attention to the macro-large environment.

"From petroleum into polyester, petrochemical, to polyester sections, then to yarn and fabric, price transmission takes a certain time." Xiamen Xianglu Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. said the relevant person in charge said that the price of chemical fiber products has no increase in oil prices. . Because the annual condition and supply and demand of the textile industry are not only just like only from the data. "The current situation is that the upstream supply is in short supply, downstream supply is greater than seeking."

According to the relevant platform monitoring, the loom booting rate in Jiangsu, Zhejiang Province has reached the highest value since the Spring Festival, but the high speed rate duration is very short, and most of the clusters have fell more than two weeks. The latest statistics show that at the end of April, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, China's chemical fiber woven integrated starting rate was 76.05%, down 0.49 percentage points from the previous month.

The market is expected to not be clear

The fluctuation of oil prices seems to have of the main role in many textile people. The start-up status of the woven cluster is the best description of the textile market. The traditional peak season is still in this way, and the market trend will be in the face of the subsequent season?

This year's situation is somewhat special. According to analysts of the textile and apparel industry chain, the analyst of the broker institution, India is second only to China's second largest textile manufacturing country and exporting country. With the deterioration of the Indian epidemic, the country's textile enterprises cannot guarantee normal delivery, and there is a phenomenon that has changed a large number of European and American textile orders. The Chinese enterprises have received backward orders, from May to June this year, overseas return orders are expected to grow further.

Guangdong's fabric foreign trade enterprises revealed in the recent interview with Finance: "In the past two days, consultations, the buyers of fabrics are significantly increased. At the same time, companies have narrowed the customer's preferential amplitude."

However, there are also industry insiders to consider uncertainty factors such as epidemics, my country's fabric enterprises and foreign trade companies will have much beneficial support, and still need to be observed. In addition, the order is "transferred" in India, the Bangladesh et al., So that the profit will lack a competitiveness. Even if European and American customers directly add orders directly, pay attention to improve contract prices, otherwise our fabric enterprises and foreign trade companies are difficult to digest.

China · Keqia Textile Index predicts that the time and degree of global consumption demand will still have uncertainty, and the export of epidemic prevention materials that grow mainly, the export of epidemic prevention materials, which only rely on extremely low borders, and the trend of high growth. Long-term continued. Therefore, it is expected that although exports in the second quarter of this year will remain growth, the increase will return to normal level, and the exports of large commodities such as textile and clothing will continue to achieve recovery. With the era of enterprises, the epidemic sealing is different, and the economic recovery is uneven, and the shipping company has strengthened the dominant position on the entire trade route. Since April, the shipper may face a new round of freight rate and rise. The impact of the peak season surcharge (PSS).

The integrated domestic trade market trend, the overall market transaction of the market will show a slutty and small fell, spring fabric spot transaction and orders are partially declining. The downstream demand will be inadequate, the market market is placed, the fabric subscription will be declining; and the sales of some traders and weaving factory orders are localized, the spring market has a decline, the spot transaction and orders will continue to return Shrink, the batch of the spring fabric declines, the woven enterprise bootstrap local retraction, the output of printing and dyeing enterprises has been lowered, and the public product subscription is expected to decline.