Late on the night of September 8, the plummeting oil price made a comeback and broke the calm upside of the cotton market. Overnight, a large area of the domestic futures market floated green, and the price of the main cotton futures contract CF2101 fell to a low of 12,215 yuan/ton, returning the price increase in the past two months to the price level in early July. The huge decline of "returning to the pre-liberation overnight" was unacceptable for the industry insiders, and one could not help but investigate the cause of its deep decline.

　　 First of all, the huge drop in cotton futures prices this time is mainly due to the superimposed effect of crude oil and US stocks, which can be attributed to external drag factors. Related analysis believes that the crude oil collapse is mainly due to the following reasons. One is that the demand for crude oil consumption has not arrived as scheduled, and the fiscal stimulus bill has been delayed, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of oil shipped to Asian countries; the second is OPEC 9 Monthly supply is expected to pick up. The impact of hurricane weather in the United States on crude oil production has passed, and the current number of wells has rebounded; third, the US stock market has plummeted and market sentiment is not conducive to risk assets.

　　 In addition, Sino-US relations are constantly escalating. The news that the United States banned the import of cotton products from China’s Xinjiang also dealt another blow to the Zheng Cotton market. Some domestic foreign trade companies report that due to some unreasonable requirements from the United States, some export orders for Xinjiang cotton as raw materials have been affected, and the delayed and cancelled orders mainly come from the US market.

According to a domestic foreign trade company, even after the United States showed signs of suppressing Xinjiang cotton in July, it has begun to gradually increase its purchases of foreign cotton. However, due to limited quotas, Xinjiang cotton is the main raw material for domestic textile companies, and some foreign trade companies have to temporarily Abandon some export orders that require raw materials. On September 8, the General Administration of Customs released my country's textile and apparel export data for August. The year-on-year change in apparel exports in August was the first time this year from negative to positive. However, Sino-US relations are becoming more and more intense. For foreign trade companies that are just getting better, it may be more difficult to maintain the growth of export orders.

September of the new year is an extremely extraordinary month. The launch of new cotton meets Zheng Mian's plummeting. The traditional "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak seasons in domestic textile downstream have not met expectations. Prices continue to fall in a negative state, and the domestic textile and apparel market cycle will continue. For a period of time, multiple negative factors have shrouded, and the price of seed cotton, which has not yet been scaled, has been suppressed.

　　 The survey results of the new-year seed cotton opening price at the end of August show that the expected opening price of Xinjiang hand-picked cotton is 5.2-5.8 yuan/kg and machine-picked cotton is 4.5-5.0 yuan/kg. Ginning plants are often purchased on the market. If the market continues to decline, it is hard to be optimistic about whether the expected price can maintain the income of cotton farmers. Whether the planting intention of cotton farmers will change in the next year is worth paying close attention to.